2026-04-079 min read
The 54% to 21.5% Problem
The backtest showed a 54% win rate. Live trading produced 21.5%. A 32.5 percentage-point divergence does not come from luck or regime change. Three concrete root causes, and why alignment tests should be a deploy gate on every scoring system.
2026-04-077 min read
Why Your Strongest Signals Are Losing You Money
The InDecision Engine shipped with a conviction hierarchy that looked textbook-correct. An outcome correlator query overturned it in thirty seconds. The strongest conviction tier had a 49.4% win rate and negative PnL. The weakest directional tier had 75%. The engine was designed backwards.